For the past year or so, economic experts have been threatening American investors with the “R” word…
Now, it’s mostly “TV experts” who may have less to lose than people who actually earn a living making others money – but they’ve been talking about it non-stop nonetheless.
The question is…
Why?
Is it because they’re looking for views and clicks?
Or do they actually believe there is a recession on the horizon?
Let’s see if we can’t uncover the truth…
So, which is it?
Do today’s talking heads TRULY believe that there’s a recession on the horizon or are they just trying to be controversial or shocking in order to get the attention of the general public?
Well…
The fact is, the current data just isn’t enough to support the claims of an imminent recession.
Now, to be fair, there are a few warning signs that had more than just these guys freaked out…
Mostly the treasury yield curve inversion.
When the yield curve inverted a few months ago, Wall Street panicked – as this is a sign that a recession may be about to rear its ugly head.
However…
It’s just ONE of the signs.
One of the signs by itself isn’t enough to predict a coming or imminent recession…
If there were other signs – like a wage explosion and/or a drastic drop or slowing in home sales and construction – then a recession may be a real possibility.
But that’s just not happening…
While wages are rising – they’re not out of control or rising too fast…
They’re just going up at a steady rate and while the housing industry may be slowing down a bit – the fact is – it’s not stopping or anywhere close to it.
Now, I’m not saying the economy is bullet proof – but the current American economy is a lot stronger than it looks…
And as much as some people don’t want to attribute said economy to the current administration – the fact remains – it does deserve at least some credit.
Think about everything that has bombarded the economy…
As Michael Hartnett, Merrill Lynch Chief Investment Strategist puts it, “Yield curve inversion, U.S.-China trade war, recession in Germany, collapse in Chinese industrial production, contraction in global profits, oil price spike, BREXIT, Trump impeachment inquiry, Argentine default/Ford downgrade/Thomas Cook bankruptcy … yet risk assets close to all-time highs and U.S stocks on course for 30% annualized returns, global stocks 24%, commodities 17%, global investment grade & high-yield bonds 14%, U.S. Treasuries 10% … breathtaking stuff.”
He even went on to call it a “miracle” on Wall Street.
And he’s not wrong…
Even with ALL of this going on, the S&P 500 has gained almost 19% in 2019…
The Dow has gained almost 15% – so if investors understand what’s going on in the geopolitical and financial worlds – they’re not too worried about it.
But…
That doesn’t mean it’s all coming up roses. There may not necessarily be a recession on the horizon at this exact moment – but things look like they’re about to slow down.
One British economist wrote, “We don’t forecast a recession in the US, but the manufacturing sector and the yield curve are sending worrisome signals, and we think that the US economy will continue to slow over the coming months. Furthermore, we expect growth in the rest of the world – where firms in the S&P 500 make roughly 40% of their earnings – to remain weak.”
Something to keep in mind going forward.
So – those talking heads on TV?
They’re looking for views and clicks… and that’s about it.
However, if the experts are expecting a slow down…
It may be time to adjust your strategies accordingly – you know – prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
That’s why we continue to believe that the GorillaTrades system is one of the best…
We don’t expect anything – we simply work off the data we’re given and make picks accordingly.
The GorillaTrades system doesn’t exactly “select” winners…
Winners exhibit the kind of technical strength the GorillaTrades trading matrix is looking for.
And you can see EXACTLY how it works by becoming a subscriber today…
It’s the only way you can truly understand just why it’s become one of the fastest growing, and most highly-respected systems in the world.
Or you can continue to go it alone – it’s your call!
Regardless, if there’s something we should keep in mind – it’s that although a slowdown may be on the horizon – a recession is NOT.
Hopefully that’s information you can use for your investment goals.
“The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.” – Martin Luther King, Jr.
